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06/15/2009 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Making his first public appearance since retiring from the New York Jets, Brett Favre said Monday night he's considering playing again, this time for the Minnesota Vikings.
Favre spoke on the new HBO show "Joe Buck Live" and said he had surgery 2 1/2 weeks ago on his throwing arm, but indicated his status on returning hinges on how the arm heals. He said Dr. James Andrews told him it would be 4-to-5 weeks before knowing if the surgery was successful.
"If it's not up to par when the time comes, then you can't play," said Favre, who also noted he's throwing the football now.
Favre said he met with a Vikings trainer on Sunday to work on different exercises.
"It makes a lot of sense because the pieces are in place," Favre said of possibly playing for the Vikings. "They do have a great running back (Adrian Peterson), a great running game. If I go there, there are no guarantees. We all know that. I went through that last year with New York."
Favre played for the New York Jets last season, but was hampered by a torn biceps tendon. He then announced his retirement, for a second straight season and was then granted his release by the Jets.
Quarterbacks Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels are battling for the Vikings starting job, but that was before Favre entered the picture.
The three-time MVP ended a very brief retirement in the summer of 2008 and was traded by Green Bay to the Jets, helping them to an 8-3 start last season. But Favre and the team stumbled over the final five games, as the Jets finished the campaign with just one win to conclude the season at 9-7, missing the playoffs.
The Jets selected USC quarterback Mark Sanchez with the fifth overall selection in the NFL Draft and subsequently released Favre, who reportedly wanted to become a Viking before the Packers traded him to the Jets last offseason.
Favre spent 18 seasons in the NFL and starred for 16 years with the Packers, who acquired him from Atlanta before the 1992 season. He threw four passes in two games with the Falcons, who had selected the Southern Mississippi product in the second round of the 1991 NFL Draft.
The ultimate gunslinger, Favre was a seven-time All-Pro and was selected to 10 Pro Bowls, including this past season with New York. He left the game as the NFL's all-time record holder in several categories, including wins by a starting quarterback, passing yards, touchdowns, interceptions and consecutive games started.
Favre completed 61.6 percent of his passes for 65,127 yards with 464 touchdowns and 310 interceptions. He led the Packers to a pair of Super Bowls, winning his lone title after the 1996 season in a 35-21 victory over New England. The Packers lost to Denver in the Super Bowl the following season.
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Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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