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02/03/2012 - Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sam Gagner joined the likes of Wayne Gretzky and Paul Coffey as he posted eight points to lead the Oilers to an 8-4 win over the Chicago Blackhawks.
Gagner, who came into the game with just five goals and 17 assists, totaled four goals and four assists to match the Edmonton record for most points in a game held by Gretzky and Coffey.
"It's something I will never forget," said Gagner. "It definitely feels good, it felt like everything I touched went in."
Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle each had a goal and three assists while Ryan Whitney added a goal and an assist for the Oilers, who have won three of four. Devan Dubnyk stopped 43 shots in the win.
Patrick Sharp scored twice while Jamal Mayers and Dave Bolland each had a goal for the Blackhawks, who have dropped four straight.
"What can you say about a game like that," said Sharp. "That guy (Gagner) had the magic touch tonight."
Corey Crawford was pulled in the third period after allowing five goals on 28 shots. Ray Emery played the rest of the way and gave up three goals on 13 shots.
With the score tied in the third, the Oilers took a 4-3 lead as a shot by Whitney from the left point went high, but it took an Edmonton bounce as it went to the right side and Gagner buried it 1:54 in.
Less than two minutes later, the Oilers took a 5-3 lead as Cam Barker's off- speed shot from the left point got past the glove of Crawford, who was pulled for Emery after the goal.
Chicago responded two minutes later when Bolland backhanded home a loose puck in the slot, but Gagner completed the hat trick less than 30 seconds after that on a wrister from the right circle off a feed from Hall.
Gagner scored his fourth of the game and ninth of the season with 5:29 left in the contest and assisted on Eberle's goal with 4:45 to play to cap the scoring and break into the Edmonton record book.
The only goal of the first period went to Chicago when Mayers scored his fifth of the year 6:29 in.
Chicago made it 2-0 just 40 seconds into the second as Patrick Kane's pass from the right to the left saw Sharp one-time it between the pads of a sliding Dubnyk.
Edmonton tied the game less than two minutes later as Hall went in on a break and snuck it home. Just five minutes after that, the Oilers tied the game on a wraparound from the left side by Gagner.
The Oilers then took a 3-2 lead on the power play with 7:37 left to play in the second when Whitney's slap shot from the left point went into the right corner of the net.
Chicago, though, tied the contest three minutes later while shorthanded as a 2-on-1 break saw Jonathan Toews blast a shot from the right circle and Sharp bury the rebound from the left side.
Game Notes
Chicago continues its nine-game road trip in Calgary on Friday...Edmonton hosts Detroit on Saturday...Edmonton won three of four against Chicago this season...It was Gagner's second career hat trick.
<< Backcourt leads Gators past Gamecocks
Gainesville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kenny Boynton netted 24 points and Bradley
Beal finished with 17 points and 11 rebounds as No. 12 Florida downed South
Carolina, 74-66.
Erving Walker added 14 points and seven assists for the Gator
<< Wild blank Avalanche
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Niklas Backstrom stopped all 37 shots he
faced -- including 17 in the third period -- as Minnesota slipped by Colorado,
1-0, at Pepsi Center.
Greg Zanon's first-period goal was enough for the Wild, who
<< Stanford fights off ASU behind Ogwumike sisters
Tempe, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nnemkadi Ogwumike and Chiney Ogwumike totaled 42
points and 32 rebounds, carrying No. 4 Stanford past Arizona State, 62-49 for
its 67th straight Pac-12 victory.
Nnemkadi scored 22 points, her younger sister add
<< Bulls ride Rose in fourth to down Knicks
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Derrick Rose scored 15 of his 32 points in the
fourth quarter as the Chicago Bulls held on to take down the New York Knicks,
105-102.
Carmelo Anthony had an opportunity to tie the game at the final buzzer,
Red Wings edge Canucks in shootout >>
Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pavel Datsyuk scored the winner in the
shootout as the Detroit Red Wings edged the Vancouver Canucks, 4-3, in a
battle of the top two teams in the Western Conference.
Datsyuk faked to the foreha
Warriors run over Jazz >>
Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Golden State's starting backcourt of Monta
Ellis and Stephen Curry combined to score 62 points as the Warriors downed the
Utah Jazz, 119-101.
Ellis had 33 points while Curry finished with 29 points and 12
Hartsock leads BYU over Gonzaga >>
Provo, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Noah Hartsock scored 24 points and grabbed 14
rebounds to lead BYU past No. 24 Gonzaga, 83-73, in West Coast Conference
action.
Matt Carlino added 18 points and Brandon Davies had l5 for the Cougars (19
Nuggets take out Clippers >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Danilo Gallinari went 5-of-5 from behind
the arc and scored 21 points, and the Denver Nuggets silenced the streaking
Clippers, 112-91 at Staples Center.
Los Angeles came in 10-2 at home and was riding
LaDainian Tomlinson Favorite to be 2007 NFL MVP
With the first NFL preseason game less than two weeks away, it is time to start thinking about football once again at MySportsbook.com. Reigning NFL MVP LaDainian Tomlinson is currently the 5-1 co-favorite to win the award again alongside Super Bowl MVP Peyton Manning.
This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone after his all out assault on the record books last season. For those suffering from amnesia or were under a rock last football season, all L.T. did last season was set the NFL record for rushing touchdowns (28), total touchdowns (31) and total points scored (186) to go along with his 1815 rushing yards and 508 receiving yards. At 6-1, Tom Brady is next in line which isn’t surprising considering all of the firepower the Pats added over the off-season. With the addition of Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker; it would be quite difficult for Brady’s numbers not to improve from last years 3529 yards and 24 touchdowns. There appears to be some decent value in Drew Bees at 10-1 considering he probably would have won the award last year if it wasn’t for L.T.’s record breaking season.
There is no reason to think the Saints will come back to earth this season and playing in a weak NFC, they should have as good a shot as any to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. At 15-1, Donovan McNabb could also be worth a look. Remember, many felt he was the MVP of the first half of the season before going down with a season ending injury. Reportedly, he is in great shape and well ahead of schedule to return to form. Also, he could have some added motivation to put up big numbers this season with the Eagles using their first pick in the draft on McNabb’s future successor Kevin Kolb.
Be sure to log on to MySportsbook.com to check out the complete odds for NFL MVP as well as all of the new football related futures. With the popularity of NFL futures, these betting lines will be sure to change as the money comes in; get the early sports lines now.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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