Hanson leads, but Race to Dubai still up for grabs

Golf Betting Lines

12/08/2011 - Dubai, United Arab Emirates (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Only two of the 58 players in this week's field at the Dubai World Championship have a chance to win the money title, but that didn't stop Peter Hanson on Thursday.

Hanson tied a Jumeirah Golf Estates course record with an eight-under 64 and leads by one after the opening 18 holes of the European Tour's season-closing event.

Coming off a third-place finish in Hong Kong and ranked 16th in the Race to Dubai, Hanson had eight birdies -- including six on the back nine -- to grab a one-stroke lead over early leader Paul Lawrie.

"It's one of the best rounds I've ever played, especially feeling-wise," Hanson said. "Everything seemed to be right."

The story of the week, however, centers around the final pairing of Luke Donald and Rory McIlroy, ranked one and two both in the world rankings and Race to Dubai rankings. McIlroy needs to win this event to have any shot at overtaking Donald in the Race to Dubai, and he finished his opening round at six-under 66 to give himself a shot.

"I've given myself a really good start to build on, and there's still a lot of golf to play," McIlroy said. "I'm going to have to play really well the next three days to give myself a chance to win, and that's what I'm focused on."

Donald, however, had a dreadful finish with three straight bogeys from the 14th in a round of even-par 72. He needs a ninth-place finish to win the money crown, but sits in a share of 26th at the moment.

"(I'll) just stick to the process of picking good targets," Donald said. "I'll go work on it on the range and get back at it tomorrow."

Should Donald claim the money title -- still a very likely scenario -- he will become the first player to win it on the European and PGA Tours in the same year. He was close to securing that distinction last week before McIlroy managed to win the Hong Kong Open and keep his hopes alive.

Donald and McIlroy both figure to take home a good chunk of change this week regardless of the result, as the top 15 finishers in the Race to Dubai split a large bonus pool; the winner and runner-up will each take home over $1 million.

Early on, it looked as if Donald would create enough of a cushion that he could cruise to the money title. The world's top player recovered from an opening bogey to post three birdies in four holes, including a 25-footer at the third.

McIlroy, meanwhile, also had three birdies in the first five holes, but a double-bogey at the second left him one behind his playing partner.

"Maybe the two mistakes -- they were more mental mistakes," McIlroy said of the early troubles. "They were maybe something I wouldn't make if I were fresh, but I stuck to the task of shooting the best score I could."

On the eighth, Donald hit a seven-foot birdie putt, while McIlroy missed the green in regulation and settled for bogey to create a three-shot gap. On the back nine, however, the roles reversed.

McIlroy opened the final nine with a birdie at the 10th to get to one-under, and he birdied the par-three 13th to move to within one of Donald. For whatever reason, Donald's driver abandoned him at that point, and he hit drives into the bushes on both the 14th and 15th en route to consecutive bogeys.

"It was a mixture of both halves," Donald said. "I played very nicely in the front nine, thought I was in control, and I just kind of lost it. Poor tee shots on 13, 14 and 15. I think this course can do that to you. The way this course is, there's a lot of hazards in the middle of the fairway."

Donald dropped to minus-one, while McIlroy birdied the 14th to move to three- under for the day.

It continued to get worse for at No. 16 for Donald, who hit his drive into a fairway bunker to lead to another bogey. McIlroy was able to run home a long birdie putt on the same hole to create a four-shot gap at four-under.

The reigning U.S. Open champ continued to put on a display and make his intentions known at No. 17 with a curling 12-foot birdie putt, his fourth in a five-hole span.

He landed in the rough with his tee shot on the last, but recovered to make a 15-footer for birdie and a round of 66. Donald parred the 18th to shoot a 72.

"I holed some really nice putts coming in, which helped," McIlroy said. "I just stayed patient. I hit some good shots. I just kept giving myself chances on the back nine, and, lucky enough, holed some nice putts."

Hanson's front nine was solid, but unspectacular with only a pair of birdies and nary a bogey. On the back nine, though, Hanson looked like the player who contended last week in Hong Kong.

The four-time European Tour champ went six-under on the back nine, including birdies on each of the first four holes, and missed a short birdie putt at the 18th that would have given him the course record.

Lawrie, the 1999 British Open champ, also had a flawless round, and he and Hanson have a small cushion on McIlroy at the moment.

NOTES: Defending champion Robert Karlsson shot a one-over 73...This is the third time this event has been held. Lee Westwood, who also shot a 73, won the inaugural tournament...Ross Fisher, who shot a four-under 68, holed his approach at the par-four 15th for eagle. It was the only eagle all day...Y.E. Yang withdrew after four holes, reducing the field to 57 players.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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